全球暖化有多严峻？卫报：用“全球加热”取代“全球变暖”

据BBC及CNN报道：英国一项最新研究显示，如果碳排持续目前的水平，格陵兰和南极洲的冰层将加速融化，2100年全球海平面最坏情况下将上升2米，上海、伦敦、纽约未来都可能受到威胁。

根据这项研究，全球海平面的实际上升速率可能远远超过以往的预计。

按这个速度发展，沿海三角洲的大城市面临威胁，一些国家可能不再适宜居住，这可能导致近2亿人流离失所。

Global sea levels could rise by two meters and displace tens of millions of people by the end of the century, according to new projections that double the UN's benchmark estimates.

The vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica contain enough frozen water to lift the world's oceans a dozen of meters. The expansion of water as oceans warm also contributes to sea level rise.

过去长期以来的看法是，到2100年，全球海平面将最多上升近1米。但新的研究预测, 其上升的实际速率将是预测的2倍

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)2013至2014年发布的第五次评估报告称，如果不大幅度减少排放，地球的持续变暖将使全球水平面在2100年升高52厘米至98厘米之间。

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said it's 2013 Fifth Assessment Report that under current emissions trajectories – a "business-as-usual" scenario known as RCP8.5 – would likely rise by up to one meter by 2100.

That prediction has since been viewed as conservative, as the levels of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise year on year, and satellites show accelerated rates of melt-off from massive ice sheets atop Antarctica and Greenland.

A group of the world's leading ice scientists this week released an expert judgment on the situation, drawing on their own experience and observations.

While there was still a significant margin of error, they found it "plausible" that under the business-as-usual emissions scenario, sea-level rises could exceed two meters by 2100.

然而，许多专家认为，由于温室气体排放量每年都在增加，这是一个极于保守的估计。

IPCC 2013年的报告只考虑了“有可能”发生的事情，从科学角度来说，这意味着他们研究了17%-83%的可能性。

而这项新的研究考察了更广泛的概率结果，涵盖了5%至95%的预测。

新报告的作者认为，这种情况将对地球产生巨大的影响。

如果海平面上升两米，全世界将失去相当于179万平方公里的陆地面积— 这相当于法国、德国、西班牙和英国的陆地面积总数。

受到影响的人数会高出大约200倍 – 预计将导致约1.8亿人无家可归。

The authors said the area of land lost to the ocean could be equivalent to that of France, Germany, Spain and Britain combined and would displace more than 180 million people. "A sea-level rise of this magnitude would clearly have profound consequences for humanity," they said.

'The true risks'

The Paris climate deal, struck between nations in 2015, aims to limit global temperature rises to well below two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) and encourages countries to work towards a 1.5C cap.

In October, the IPCC released a landmark climate report that called for a drastic and immediate drawdown in coal, oil and gas consumption in order to arrest the rapid rise in the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

That report, however, did not include revised estimates of sea level rise. Earth has already heated 1C since pre-industrial times, contributing roughly 3mm to sea levels each year. The authors of the new study, released Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, argue that the IPCC's sea-level rise prediction was too constrained by focusing on what was "likely" to happen.

At wider probabilities – five-95 percent likelihood – they found that under 2C of warming seas could rise 36-126 cm by 2100. In a world that has warmed by 5C – unlikely but certainly not impossible given projected fossil fuel demand in the coming decades – they calculated a five percent risk of sea levels surpassing two meters higher, topping out at 238 cm.

Willy Aspinall, from the University of Bristol's School of Earth Sciences, said he hoped the study could provide policymakers with a more accurate worst-case scenario "crucial for robust decision making."

"Limiting attention to the 'likely' range, as was the case in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, may be misleading and will likely lead to a poor evaluation of the true risks," he added.

从“气候变化”到“气候危机”，“全球加热”取代“全球变暖”，有外媒已开始在报道全球环境问题时改变用语，表明气候问题严峻程度。

《卫报》在其最新版的写作格式指南中，引入了一些他们认为能更准确描述世界所面临环境危机的术语。

写作格式指南是记者编写、编辑和英语使用的标准参照。在《卫报》新的指南中，  “气候变化” （climate change）被替换为“气候紧急情况/危机/崩盘”（climate emergency, crisis or breakdown），而“全球变暖”（global warming）的表述也得到了强化，变为“全球加热”（global heating ）。

《卫报》主编表示：“我们希望确保在科学上更加精确，同时在这个非常重要的问题上与读者清楚地沟通……越来越多的气候科学家和组织，从联合国到气象局，正在改变他们的术语，用更强硬的语言描述我们所处的白热化的情况。”

When it comes to climate coverage, the Guardian is also making headlines by changing its language in order to more accurately reflect the science and the extent to which climate issues escalate and worsen. The move, though seen as polarizing by observers, recommends using a more critical language, and less passive and gentle terms describing the environment in its recently updated style guide, such as "climate emergency, crisis or breakdown" instead of "climate change," and "global heating" rather than "global warming.”

卫报并不是第一个开启媒体应当如何讨论气候变化的话题的组织。

去年 12 月，负责英国气象局气候研究的理查德·贝茨( Richard Betts )教授表示，“全球加热” 是一个比“全球变暖” 更准确的术语。而在政界，英国国会议员最近批准了工党宣布的“气候紧急情况”。